Mid Term Elections 2010

[CelticMuscle]

As we are now less than 100 days from the Mid Term elections in November (yes, that's right, summer is almost over and in some parts of the world hasn't even got started yet), and after a little confusion produced by how the FEC publish their election results, I have produced a table of targets for both parties. Firstly, the Democrats (who are defending a majority in the House) and their top 10 targets.

[COLOR="Red"]Louisiana 4, California 4, California 44, Missouri 9, Louisiana 2, Minnesota 6, Nebraska 2, South Carolina 1, Pennsylvania 6 and Kansas 2[/COLOR]

Now, I have to admit given recent poll ratings I don't think there will be very few Democrat gains, but was informed this morning that SC 4's sitting GOP congressman was ousted in the primary election with a strong Democrat and Libertarian candidate standing against the new one (so I suppose anything could happen there)

[CelticMuscle]

Based on the 2008 congressional elections, the Democrats won 256 seats and the Republicans won 179 seats giving the Democrats an overall majority of 77 seats (and a percentage vote lead of 10.8%). In order for the Republicans to gain control of the House, they need to gain a minimum of 39 seats (40 seats to gain an overall majority and 50 to gain a working majority). In order to gain a majority, the Republicans need a swing in their favour of 7.2% (in other words, they need to finish the election with a 3.5% vote lead). Given the number of seats they need to gain, it is best to list them in increasing order of swing

1% swing to Republicans (If all these turn red, Dems have a majority of 62 (Figure in brackets represents Dem lead over GOP)
[COLOR="Blue"]

1. VA 5 (0.23%)
2. AL 2 (0.62%)
3. OH 15 (0.76%)
4. MD 1 (0.79%)
5. CT 4 (0.81%)
6. ID 1 (1.21%)[/COLOR]

I have to admit I have no idea what the local politics are in these districts, but would appreciate any members who live in their districts telling me what the issues on the ground are.