I am not claiming to be an expert on hurricanes

[CelticMuscle]

but these latest tracks aiming Ivan towards Florida really worry me as I am convinced Ivan's going to make landfall in Louisana

Originally Posted by CelticMuscle

but these latest tracks aiming Ivan towards Florida really worry me as I am convinced Ivan's going to make landfall in Louisana

Hmmm... What was it that convinced you?

Latest news here is that it's continuing to drift more and more westward and is currently predicted to hit the western panhandle of Florida and possibly Alabama. However, residents of the west coast of Florida are still preparing for heavy wind and rain as it passes by becuase it's almost as large as Francis was.

[CelticMuscle]

The main concern I have is the bendiness of the track. I know that all hurricanes do bend, but the forecast track of Ivan bends so much as to make me sure that Florida is being worried unduly. Take a look



Doesn't that series of 45? turns as it appraoches Cuba look too regular to you?

[CelticMuscle]

but did I not say that landfall might be in LA rather than FL

[ottomun6]

Yeah, I have heard it will probably land in LA and brush a bit of FL too.
As bad as it was for FL, I think the folks in LA are really going to need some prayers just because it sounds like Ivan is going to be packing a solid F4 and LA is destined to be underwater for a fairly long stretch. LA is sort of a bowl sitting below sealevel and right on the edge of the ocean. Some are predicting 12 to 18' in some areas.

As big and as damaging as Francis was on the Florida east coast a couple of weeks ago, Ivan is going to be much worse for Louisiana and Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.

We had sustained winds of perhaps 100 MPH, Ivan is producing 135 MPH sustained winds and if you think that's not much difference, think again.

At 75MPH trees bend and sway, at 100MPH they break and/or topple. At 75MPH shingles come off roofs, at 100MPH roofs come off houses. It's not so much the sustained winds that cause the most damage, but rather the abrupt change in wind speed and the even faster gusts.

(mental experiment: Try to imagine your house and all it's surrounding property & trees on a big flatbed truck and moving down the road at 75 MPH. Then imagine speeding up to 100 MPH or 135 MPH. Now suppose the wind stopped for a moment then immediately was at full speed again or perhaps as high as 160 or even 200 MPH once in a while. How long would your house and landscaping last?)

Francis has caused, by latest newspaper report, about $25 Million damage in the city of Melbourne, and a third of a billion dollars in the state. Ivan has much bigger water surge being pushed in front of it than did Francis.

Oh yeah, this is "Ivan the Terrible" and now all the electric and telephone and TV cable repair crews that came to Florida from neighboring states, and who are mostly still here, will be needed in Alabama. There are still people in this city without electricity and/or phone.

And just to "stir the pot" a little, hurricane Jeanne is now headed in our direction (FL east coast). I'm not too worried, it's pretty small and weak and not likely to hit us directly but we don't need any more rain. I'm still raking debris out of various places around the house. Little bush and tree leaves are packed tightly "under" remaining ground cover plants like ivy. Flower plants taller than 2 inches were just whisked out of the ground or scrubbed and tattered as if a dull lawnmower had gone over them. Not counting the 40 foot high, 3 foot diameter tree that spit and is laying on our roof and simultaneously laying on half our back yard, I've dragged and piled about 20 of its limbs that were 20 feet long and 2 or 3 inches in diameter where they broke off and scattered around the house. And Francis was only a cat 2 storm when it hit us. Ivan is a high cat 3 or a cat 4 last I heard.

Still think there's no evidence of global warming? Check out this month's National Geographic magazine.

[brent]

I'm just hoping & paying that it misses New Orleans. I think that's where most of the real-estate, and historic buildings that are below sea-level in Louisiana are. I haven't been there yet, and I don't want it getting washed away before I get the chance!

Originally Posted by brent

I'm just hoping & paying that it misses New Orleans. I think that's where most of the real-estate, and historic buildings that are below sea-level in Louisiana are. I haven't been there yet, and I don't want it getting washed away before I get the chance!

(*grin*) I know what you mean. New Orleans is sort of an American Amsterdam. Old places, sizzling ambiance, and a touch of class too. I've been there once but I got the full treatment. I don't remember much but I do remember waking up naked next to my lover on one of those ornate cast iron balconies overhanging Bourbon St or something like that. Seems that we ran into an old friend of his who was a bartender at Laffietts (sp?) and eventually ended up staying the night in the home of one really nice (and muscular) porn star. Too bad I don't remember much else. Does this qualify as a muscle sighting?

[glammaman2000]

of course it still counts!Bush has just flip-flopped on global warming...thinks it might actually be a problem.Blair thinks it is!Jeanne coming up...what's the furthest down the alphabet they've ever gotten?

[brent]

I agree with Glamma, it is a sighting, but not full credit since you can't give us a full description. I also agree that Bush I &II's policies have lead to where we seem to be averaging one hurricane a week! This is ridiculous! You should all move out west where the weather is normal.

[CelticMuscle]

According to a friend I speak to in Idaho, they are now entering their third year with an offical drought order in place.

Global Warming (which has the same inital as a certain president) is a GLOBAL problem but one that is being allowed to get out of control thanks to the same certain president who has refused to ratify Kyoto, in fact last I heard the Maldives are threatening to sue the United States for loss of earnings when their country is submerged in 2025

[arpeejay]

Check www.weather.com for updates.

I grew up in Pensacola and my mom and her husband as well as my ex-wife's parents (my kids' other grandparents) still live there.

Ivan went in around Gulf Shores, a beach town halfway between Pensacola and Mobile. It sounds like there has been a LOT of damage and already multiple deaths have been reported. I haven't heard from my mom or Janet's parents yet but in each case they live on high ground in very solidly built houses.

One thing to keep in mind about hurricanes, Celtic, especially in the upper Gulf of Mexico, is that they tend to have minds of their own. I can't tell you how many times there have been ones headed straight for Pensacola that at the last minute swerved and went somewhere else. (Including Hurricane Camille, in 1969, the worst hurricane since the 1900 hurricane that wiped out Galveston, Texas.) The hurricane warning zone extended from Grand Isle, La., to Apalachicola, Fla., a distance of about 500 miles, and Ivan could easily have come ashore at any point in that area.

New Orleans missed the bullet this time and I'm glad for that even though Pensacola wound up taking it instead. Pensacola is one of the few places on the northern Gulf Coast that actually has high ground, so it's a bit better able to deal with it.

I won't sound as sanguine when pix of the beach areas start coming in. I'm afraid they're likely to be gone, gone, gone.

xoxo

richard

[brent]

Originally Posted by CelticMuscle

According to a friend I speak to in Idaho, they are now entering their third year with an offical drought order in place...

OK, I was joking about the west being totally free of severe weather. We generally don't get dangerous weather on this side of the country, but we do get earthquakes, droughts, forest fires, volcanic eruptions, and landslides o'plenty. Nobody called me on it, seesh!



Oh, and although Idaho is considered, "Out West" I wouldn't consider it a part of the west coast since it's like 350 miles from the ocean. I give that distinction to the western halves of Washington, Oregon, and the entire state of California (long, thin state). I also don't consider a drought to be severe weather, since you can always buy a bottle of water. I think that's a little different from having the roof of your house blown off!

[glammaman2000]

KILLER BEES DESCEND ON OREGON!!!reportedly making a bee-line from there to Las Vegas!(AP)

[brent]

I don't think Oregon will ever have to worry about killer bees. Like me, they like the heat, and Las Vegas already has them. So do LA, and Phoenix.

How many people can say that they've been through 3 three hurricanes in the same place in two months. Add me to the list after Sunday.

Hurricane Jeanne is heading right for us here in Melbourne. As powerful if not more powerful than Francis, Jeanne looks like it's going to come up the east coast of Florida again clobbering Ft. Pierce and Vero Beach as it hits land there then scours the east coast all the way up through Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral, Daytona and St. Augustine before it heads northeast to do the same thing to the entire east coast of the US up to Washington DC.

Ivan, remember Ivan? He passed through here AGAIN a few days ago and struck the coast of Texas yesterday.

And there are more storms brewing off the coast of Africa with still two months left in the hurricane season.

I'll post a couple times a day to describe the conditions here in Melbourne but expect me to go off the air for several days sometime on Sunday.

We still have a HUGE tree laying on the house and a ragged hole in the eaves. We expect this storm to force rain into the attic through the hole in the edge of the eves and down the chimney that was damaged as the tree fell. We may get significant water damage in the house this time and may even find the tree coming inside too. Bummer!

There are still huge piles of debris around town that are going to get redistributed by hurricane Jeanne. Ah, the experience of living in Florida in a bad year.

An article in the "Florida Today" newspaper this morning talked about this year being the indication of the beginning of a twenty year trend! Time for people to re-evaluate the wisdom of retiring to Florida. Sell your stock in Florida real estate.

[glammaman2000]

Jeanne will blow away the tree Ivan left on your house.a little duct tape&...voila!it is scary though.it's just so obvious that this is god's punishment on fundamentalists for mis-representing His teachings.

[brent]

You need to remove any weight/thing that will catch the wind on that tree, so that the winds won't use the tree to destroy your house. A chain-saw would be my preferred method, but a skid-saw, or even a handsaw (like a rip saw) would do. Remove any leaves as they are where the weight of a tree tend to be. Then patch any leaks in your house's water-barrier with asphalt shingles & roof cement. As for your damaged eves, I;d suggest looking at a product for repairing mobile homes, like Snow Roof. The wind will tear plastic that isn't reinforced with wood nailed through it, and the water will quickly (as in a matter of hours) degrade the adhesive in duct tape. IMHO duct tape is useless for exterior work. Trust me on this, I do know about preserving a house's water barrier, I still live in Oregon!

The wind is starting to pick up. Continuous strong breeze from the northeast. Cloudy sky with a few sun holes here and there. A map in the newpaper this morning indicates the eye will be right over Melbourne about midnight tonight. However these storms change forward motion speed frequently and just a few miles per hour change drasticly affects predicted location of a slow moving storm. I'd rather have the worst of the storm during daylight so I can see what's going on outside.

The barrier island is being evacuated again. There is still a LOT of damage by Francis over there.

For the second time in three weeks this whole area is going to have to replace about 70% of its traffic lights. People are anticipating this storm and have already rushed to the stores and gas stations so as not to get caught without necessities after the storm.

Many people who evaculated last time, are not leaving this time. It's a judgement call. Some people who left last time had no damage and don't expect any this time. Risky, but life comes with no guarantees. People in old mobile homes and people in flood prone areas really should evacuate but it's up to them. I firmly believe that stupid people should not be discouraged from killing themselves.


However there is one good thing about loosing electricity during a hurricane when you can expect the power to be off for several days. "Ice cream party" :-)

[brent]

Originally Posted by LeatherGryphon

... People in old mobile homes and people in flood prone areas really should evacuate but it's up to them. I firmly believe that stupid people should not be discouraged from killing themselves.


However there is one good thing about loosing electricity during a hurricane when you can expect the power to be off for several days. "Ice cream party" :-)

Um, maybe we should think less about ice-cream, and more about getting that tree off your roof? Just please get out if they tell you to. A few days in a shelter may be awful, but we'd rather have you alive.

Take care, hopefully you'll pull through OK.

I don't believe I'm one of the stupid people. We are not in a pre-code mobile home and we are not in a flood prone area. When people around here "head for the high ground", they come here. The tree has been looked at by tree experts and the roof has been looked at by contractors. The tree is so big that it is essentially supporting itself quite well on the huge limbs resting on the ground and only using the roof to keep from rolling. The holes in the eaves have now been covered with canvas tarps securely wrapped around heavy wooden stays and nailed firmly to the roof and side of the house. There are people in much worse condition than we are. We may get some water damage but I really don't expect the downed tree to shift at all. I'm more worried about when they finally start to remove it and some of the self supporting limbs are removed.

Also fortunately this is a big sturdy house and even if the tree came into that end of the house there is still a lot of house in which to seek shelter including a basement (rare in Florida). I may not have any money myself, but my aunt (whom I live with) is well provided for.

This week we have guests from Alaska who have been on vacation in the south for four weeks during the worst of the hurricanes this year. They're anxious to go home where blizzards, fires, earthquakes and months of darkness are the only things they have to worry about. They actually drove through the eye of hurricane Ivan over in Alabama without knowing it, thinking "damn this is a nasty storm". Who says tourists aren't interesting?
:-)

Winds have picked up and the skys are totally gray. Rain comes in spurts, stores are closed, streets are empty, and our tourist guests are out driving around town.

[glammaman2000]

from what i hear,during the 80's&90's;the # of hurricanes hitting the U.S.was exceptionally low.6 hurricanes making landfall is about right.however,this is the first time that 4 have hit Florida in the same season.small comfort.hang in there,LG!a career as a professional hurricane consultant awaits!

[CelticMuscle]

Originally Posted by LeatherGryphon

How many people can say that they've been through 3 three hurricanes in the same place in two months. Add me to the list after Sunday.

Better make that four. Latest tracks suggest that Melbourne is going to be the place that sets the record for the 4th hurricane landfall in the same season. The last time this happened was 1890!

Can you say "global warming"?

I'll write quickly, storm is getting pretty bad. Landfall is expected in southern Brevard county (I'm in the middle of the 90 mile long Brevard county) about midnight. Worst weather will be between 8PM and 4AM. Storm is moving pretty quickly (14 MPH) Hurricane force winds go out 70 miles from the center. Hmm... that's 140 miles divided by 14 MPH, equals about 10 hours of hurricane winds. Well the calculations are close enough.

Power has failed once already tonight for about 20 minutes but we believe it was for repairing a pole struck by a car in a bad accident a few blocks from here.

So far power has been pretty stable (except for the 20 minute outage). At least it isn't flickering. Most of the tree limbs that endangered power wires have been removed by the other storms or by the power crews. We have nice brand new power transformers on a lot of poles. Most of the traffic lights around town were put up in the last couple of weeks so they're freshly tightened and not rusted.

The visitors from Alaska have brought with them lots of Alaskan salmon. I hope the power goes out so we are forced to eat the salmon as well as have an ice cream party. :-)

[brent]

Originally Posted by LeatherGryphon

I don't believe I'm one of the stupid people. We are not in a pre-code mobile home and we are not in a flood prone area. When people around here "head for the high ground", they come here. ...

LG, I'm really sorry that I made it sound like you were one of them. I didn't mean that at all. However, on second reading of my previous post, I could have phased things much more clearly. (Stupid, confusing English language...) I just ment the people I keep hearing on the radio that are like, "I'm not leaving my house again... blaugh." I also heard that as the storm started to hit, people were still driving around town, not going to higher ground. With an administration that totally ignores global warming, I think southerners had better get used to this.

Sorry for the confusion. I'm a bad boy. Can someone spank me now?
Brent.

[ottomun6]

Originally Posted by brent

LG, I'm really sorry that I made it sound like you were one of them. I didn't mean that at all. However, on second reading of my previous post, I could have phased things much more clearly...
Sorry for the confusion. I'm a bad boy. Can someone spank me now?
Brent.

I'll be right over!!

LG, I hope things settle down for you guys out there, I'm starting to cringe whenever I hear more news about Florida's weather. Maybe you and your neighbors should cruise the neighborhood to see if there is somebody mooning the sky, maybe that's what is making Florida such a target.

[brent]

I talked to Flex earlier today, so I know he's OK. Also, I'm sure LG is OK, but let's pray his house is too! I lived threw one tropical storm when I lived in New Zealand, and it wasn't fun. I never saw so much rain in all my life, and I've lived most of my life in the Pacific NW...

Originally Posted by brent

LG, I'm really sorry that I made it sound like you were one of them. I didn't mean that at all. ...
Sorry for the confusion. I'm a bad boy. Can someone spank me now?
Brent.

I'm on net for a short period tonight from my laptop and at a borrowed internet connection, I'll be brief.

I really didn't think I was being accused, I was just trying to let y'all know I wasn't really in that bad a situation. Others have it much worse.

Storm was bad, really bad in Melbourne. Lost half our roof, lost 6 more trees, house flooded, no power. Melbourne and the beaches very badly hit. Between Melbourne and West Palm Beach and through Orlando and Tampa, lots of really bad situations for people already hit hard by two or three hurricanes.

I don't expect power to be back for a week or more at our house. Roof repairs underway already. Family members coming from other parts of the state to help.

Oh, if you really want to be spanked Brent, I'm an expert. Just name the time & place, send me transport money and I'll bring the weapons. :-)

[brent]

Sorry, no money for transportation. I'll just have my husband paddle me for a while. Either I'll learn my lesson, or have a great time. (My money goes on the latter, not the former.) bummer about the flooding. I hate trees anyways, so I wouldn't be upset about that (too many here) but you do need to get that water out ASAP!!! Take care!

Brent.

[glammaman2000]

brent is moving his butt to Vegas.that is SOUTH&EAST of Portland(i.e.,much closer to you!)he is therefore more likely to feel PSYCHIC smacks from your direction!just trying to help.g.

[brent]

Psychic Bondage?, the new game from Milton Bradley?.